Sunday, August 06, 2006
Defense Wins Championships
Here's a post on Stratomatic Message Board that illustrates the competition levels:
I ran calculations to determine the difference in range ratings. I set the value of a range '1' player equal to zero, and calculated the difference for lower range players.
Value below a range 1 player = (# of X rolls on pitcher's card/216 chances to get an X roll)*plate appearances a game*a full season's worth of games*linear weight value of hits player gives up on X rolls*probability of giving up a hit during an X roll
or
Value below a range 1 player = (# of X rolls/216)*36*160*LW*p
36 plate appearances a game assumes a league OBP of ~.340. 160 games is a rough estimate for a full season - you can use 150 or 155 or 162 if you feel it is right.
LW values depend on the type of hit. 0.74 runs is what a single instead of an out is worth in a 4.5 runs per game environment. 1.05 for a double, 1.36 for a triple, and 1.67 for a HR (though HR isn't important, because a HR never comes up on an X roll). For 2 star singles I used .85, and for 1 star singles I used .65 runs - for 3 star doubles I used 1.20, and for 2 star doubles I used 1.
I used the probabilities I was given in the 'Super Advanced Fielding Chart' thread. The results are as follows:
1B:
Range 2 = -4
Range 3 = -8
Range 4 = -12
Range 5 = -17
2B:
Range 2 = -11
Range 3 = -24
Range 4 = -37
Range 5 = -52
SS:
Range 2 = -13
Range 3 = -28
Range 4 = -44
Range 5 = -61
3B:
Range 2 = -6
Range 3 = -12
Range 4 = -19
Range 5 = -26
CO:
Range 2 = -7
Range 3 = -14
Range 4 = -27
Range 5 = -38
CF:
Range 2 = -10
Range 3 = -21
Range 4 = -40
Range 5 = -57
Just to explain what that means, it means a CF with range 5 will give up 57 more runs in a season's worth of games than a 1 range CF.
I know these results seem like SOM favors defense too much (and it probably does), but I think they're definitely right. 2B and SS should be getting 1 and 1.17 X rolls a game, respectively. Having even a 3 out there means that on average, in 20% of your games you're going to be giving up singles that would have been outs if you had a 1 SS. That's over 30 singles, some of which are two-star. That will kill you.
Besides Derrek Lee, Alex Rodriguez, and Pujols, who do you think are the next 2 best position players? Based in this data, IMO it is definitely Edmonds (some off year!) and Roberts.
I hope other people enjoy this.
The author is a rookie- goes by "Mcabeth"
I ran calculations to determine the difference in range ratings. I set the value of a range '1' player equal to zero, and calculated the difference for lower range players.
Value below a range 1 player = (# of X rolls on pitcher's card/216 chances to get an X roll)*plate appearances a game*a full season's worth of games*linear weight value of hits player gives up on X rolls*probability of giving up a hit during an X roll
or
Value below a range 1 player = (# of X rolls/216)*36*160*LW*p
36 plate appearances a game assumes a league OBP of ~.340. 160 games is a rough estimate for a full season - you can use 150 or 155 or 162 if you feel it is right.
LW values depend on the type of hit. 0.74 runs is what a single instead of an out is worth in a 4.5 runs per game environment. 1.05 for a double, 1.36 for a triple, and 1.67 for a HR (though HR isn't important, because a HR never comes up on an X roll). For 2 star singles I used .85, and for 1 star singles I used .65 runs - for 3 star doubles I used 1.20, and for 2 star doubles I used 1.
I used the probabilities I was given in the 'Super Advanced Fielding Chart' thread. The results are as follows:
1B:
Range 2 = -4
Range 3 = -8
Range 4 = -12
Range 5 = -17
2B:
Range 2 = -11
Range 3 = -24
Range 4 = -37
Range 5 = -52
SS:
Range 2 = -13
Range 3 = -28
Range 4 = -44
Range 5 = -61
3B:
Range 2 = -6
Range 3 = -12
Range 4 = -19
Range 5 = -26
CO:
Range 2 = -7
Range 3 = -14
Range 4 = -27
Range 5 = -38
CF:
Range 2 = -10
Range 3 = -21
Range 4 = -40
Range 5 = -57
Just to explain what that means, it means a CF with range 5 will give up 57 more runs in a season's worth of games than a 1 range CF.
I know these results seem like SOM favors defense too much (and it probably does), but I think they're definitely right. 2B and SS should be getting 1 and 1.17 X rolls a game, respectively. Having even a 3 out there means that on average, in 20% of your games you're going to be giving up singles that would have been outs if you had a 1 SS. That's over 30 singles, some of which are two-star. That will kill you.
Besides Derrek Lee, Alex Rodriguez, and Pujols, who do you think are the next 2 best position players? Based in this data, IMO it is definitely Edmonds (some off year!) and Roberts.
I hope other people enjoy this.
The author is a rookie- goes by "Mcabeth"
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