Thursday, August 31, 2006

The Weighted On Base Average

StratoMatic has a new historical great game. I have a team with Ruth( the year he hit 60 dingers) and Mantle in 1961- and a bunch of great defenders. Then I read an entry on the SOM messsage board about lineups and that is where I learned of the weighted on base average. (It applies to real players.)

It comes from this book.

Here is the formula adjusted for the stats I do have:
(0.72x walks + 0.90x singles + 1.24x doubles + 1.56x triples + 1.95x HRs) divided by Plate Appearances (At bats + walks).

So 1987 Ozzie Smith had 89 walks, 134 singles, 40 doubles, 4 triples and 0 homers in 689 plate apearances. His wOPA is .340.

1961 Mantle had 129 walks, 86 singles, 16 doubles, 6 triples, 54 homers in 642 plate apearances. Mick's w OPA is .491.

Now that great stuff!

Comments:
Good stuff, Chip. The best I've got, on my team of 2005 players, is Lance Berkman at .390. Not too bad. Looks like no one in 2005 was close to 1961 Mantle. If I applied the formula right, A-Rod's .430 was best. Earlier this week I tried to claim Jorge Piedra on waivers, but someone else beat me to it. Now I'm really wishing I had gotten him -- his wOBA is .396 and he only cost 2.52M. I had never heard of him. This year he hit .169 before the Rockies cut him.
 
Eric - I'm excited for you- email me with your link to the team. (Go to league statistics, click on your team and copy that address. I did manage to win a championship on the 2005 team...I'll send you my team's link.
 
Chip, there are an infinite number of ways to weigh those statistics. I like OBA+SLG=OPS, but don't put a whole lot of weight into raw statistics. There is a whole field of math where you can take x# of statistics and figure out how each contributes to some end - winning. I did this in grad school to try to predict world series winners and using past history was over 60% accurate.

In my mind and at my age, I'd still rather just go out and practice than pore over stats. I'd rather watch live - no matter what level - than on tv.
 
Jim- thanks- I never played the game. I learned to love it- of all things- from listening to games on the radio while having to drive alot. However, having read Moneyball I learned that baseball experts should have been paying more attention to stats.
 
You pay attention to stats as they reflect how a player plays. The A's big stat was on-base average. That reflects a discipline at the plate - something that helps you at all levels - my obp in my league is .500. Plate discipline and taking pitches really helps when your whole team does it - that has been a Yankee strength the past few years. When you see a lot of pitches it wears down the pitcher. So OBP is better used as a talent evaluator by a whole system as opposed to on a single player.
 
Exactly- Billy Beene was considered a better prospect than Dykstra or Strawberry- but he had no plate discipline and was a head case- could'nt deal with failure. So he looked for everything that traditionalists were overlooking. And he asked questions- does a player's physique matter? when is stealing a base worth the risk? Are sacrifices smart- does moving a runner create more runs? How much does defense matter?
 
Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]





<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

Subscribe to Posts [Atom]